Bastrop Red vs Blue
Electoral Intelligence and Demographic Shifts in Bastrop County.
Nov 3, 2026
GENERAL ELECTION
63.8%
Klaus primary win
REMATCH
Same matchup as 2022
Gregory Klaus won the Republican primary outright on March 3, 2026 with 63.8% — no runoff needed. He faces Democrat Dock Jackson in the November 3 general election, a rematch of their 2022 contest. Jackson ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, preserving his resources for the general.
GOP NOMINEE — Primary Won 63.8%
Gregory Klaus
Incumbent Bastrop County Judge
63.8%
~5,600
VIABILITY 74/100
75-year-old Navy veteran who served in Vietnam. Former owner of an air conditioning and heating business. Lifelong Bastrop County resident who chairs the Commissioners Court. Previously defeated Loucks (2022 runoff) and Jackson (2022 general). Running on a record of managed growth and fiscal responsibility.
DEM NOMINEE — Ran Unopposed
Dock Jackson
Former Bastrop City Council (30 yrs) / Former County Staffer
Dem Primary: Unopposed
VIABILITY 36/100
5th-generation Bastropian with nearly three decades on the Bastrop City Council. Holds the Certified Municipal Official designation from the Texas Municipal League. Retired from Bastrop County after ~10 years of combined service in the County Judge's office and Clerk/JP offices. Founded the county-wide Juneteenth Committee 30+ years ago. Previously lost to Klaus in the 2022 general.
Gregory Klaus VS — NOV 3 Dock Jackson
Klaus beat Jackson in November 2022. Bastrop is growing fast — ~3,100 net domestic in-migrants per year, primarily from Travis County (Austin). The GOP structural advantage holds for 2026, but the demographic trend favors Democrats long-term.
Other 2026 Local Races
Bastrop County District Clerk R Primary
Republican Primary (March 3, 2026)
- Tamara Batot R
- Holly Cox R
- Sarah Loucks R
- Ward Northcutt R
City of Bastrop Mayor Non-Partisan
General Election (May 2, 2026)
- Ishmael Harris Incumbent
- Joseph Stanfield Challenger
City of Bastrop Council, Pos. 3 Non-Partisan
General Election (May 2, 2026)
- Kevin Plunkett Unopposed
~122,531
2026 est. population
+64.7%
Growth since 2010
3,100+
Net domestic arrivals/yr
37.5 yrs
Median age (dropping)
POPULATION GROWTH — BASTROP COUNTY
2010
74,381
2015
82,600
+11.0%
2019
84,522
+2.3%
2020
97,216
+15.0%
2022
105,000
+8.0%
2023
111,200
+5.9%
2024
114,931
+3.4%
2026*
122,531
+6.6%
13TH FASTEST-GROWING COUNTY IN TEXAS
Population grew 13.9% between 2020 and 2023 alone — one of the fastest clips in the state.
CITY OF BASTROP: 20K BY 2029
City Manager projects 20,000 residents by 2029 — a 42% surge in just 4 years from current levels.
WHERE NEW RESIDENTS ARE COMING FROM
Census PEP shows ~3,100 net domestic + ~242 international arrivals annually. Origin mix estimated from IRS migration data and Austin MSA commuter analysis.
Travis County (Austin) 38%
Largest single source — Austin overflow
Other TX Counties 27%
Williamson, Hays, Caldwell spillover
Other US States 22%
CA, WA, NY transplants via Austin
Natural Increase 9%
442 net births over deaths (2023-24)
International 4%
~242 net international arrivals
⚠ STRATEGIC CAUTION FOR REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGNS
The single largest source of new Bastrop County residents is Travis County (Austin). These households moved for affordability and space — not to change their politics. The "Austinization" of Bastrop is real: ex-Austinites bring blue-leaning registration patterns, progressive school board views, and reduced tolerance for anti-growth candidates.
BASTROP COUNTY DEMOGRAPHICS
White (non-Hispanic) 45.7%
Hispanic / Latino 44%
Black / African American 5.7%
Other / Multiracial 4.6%
Median HH Income
$82,730
Up from ~$72K in 2019
Median Age
37.5 yrs
Down from 38.4 — getting younger
Bachelor's Degree+
25.5%
Up as tech workers arrive
Registered Voters
62,294
As of March 2026 primary
2026 Primary Turnout
~30%
18,606 ballots cast Mar 3
Population Density
Growing
128 → ~138/sq mi
ELECTORAL RISK ASSESSMENT — GROWTH IMPACT ON BASTROP POLITICS
HIGH RISK Austin Overflow — Political Spillover
~38% of in-migrants from Travis County. Travis County votes 70%+ Democrat. These are not MAGA transplants — they're Austin residents priced out seeking rural living while keeping Austin politics.
MEDIUM RISK Tech Worker Influx
Tesla, SpaceX, and The Boring Company are driving high-income tech workers into Bastrop. This cohort skews socially liberal but economically libertarian — persuadable on property tax, but not guaranteed Republican.
MEDIUM RISK Declining Median Age
Median age dropped from 38.4 to 37.5 in five years. Younger populations lean more Democratic nationally. The county's historic 2-to-1 Republican lean could compress to 55-45 territory within 2 election cycles.
LOW RISK Registered Voter Base Still Holds (2026)
62,294 registered voters as of March 2026. Only ~30% turned out in the primary. Republican infrastructure dominates existing rolls. New arrivals must still register and mobilize — lagged effect protects GOP through 2026.
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATION
2026 is still safe for Klaus. Existing GOP voter rolls dominate and new arrivals haven't fully mobilized. The real exposure window is 2028–2030. The time to build infrastructure for new voter outreach — especially moderate tech workers and value-driven transplants — is now.
KEY EMPLOYERS DRIVING IN-MIGRATION
Tesla Gigafactory
EV / Manufacturing
WORKERS
20,000+
Largest employer draw — workers settling in Bastrop
SpaceX
Aerospace
WORKERS
~2,500
Engineers choosing Bastrop over Austin
The Boring Company
Infrastructure Tech
WORKERS
1,000+
HQ is in Bastrop County — direct local employer
Austin Metro Commuters
Remote / Hybrid
WORKERS
Est. 15,000+
Hwy 71/290 corridor — Austin income, Bastrop address
PROFILE OF THE TYPICAL BASTROP NEWCOMER
💼
Occupation
Tech / Engineering / Remote Knowledge Worker
📍
Came From
Austin (Travis County) or California via Austin
🏠
Reason
Affordability + acreage — Austin income, rural cost
🎓
Education
Bachelor's degree or higher (25.5% and rising)
💰
Income
Median HH: $82,730 — above Texas average
🗳
Likely Lean
Center to center-left on social issues; tax-sensitive
R +18.5
2024 Presidential Margin
58.6%
Trump 2024 — Bastrop Co.
40.1%
Harris 2024 — Bastrop Co.
BASTROP COUNTY PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS — 2000 TO 2024
| Year | GOP Candidate | R % | R Votes | D % | D Votes | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Bush | 56.3% | 10,310 | 38.1% | 6,973 | 18,307 | R +18.2 |
| 2004 | Bush | 56.7% | 13,290 | 41.8% | 9,794 | 23,441 | R +14.9 (D +3.7) |
| 2008 | McCain | 53.5% | 13,797 | 45.3% | 11,678 | 25,793 | R +8.2 (D +3.5) |
| 2012 | Romney | 57.3% | 14,019 | 40.3% | 9,860 | 24,457 | R +17.0 (D -5.0) |
| 2016 | Trump | 57.8% | 16,314 | 37.4% | 10,555 | 28,250 | R +20.4 (D -2.9) |
| 2020 | Trump | 56% | ~19,900 | 42.2% | ~15,000 | ~35,500 | R +13.8 (D +4.8) |
| 2024 | Trump | 58.6% | 23,276 | 40.1% | 15,941 | 39,956 | R +18.5 (D -2.1) |
MARCH 3, 2026 PRIMARY — BASTROP COUNTY PARTICIPATION
18,606 total ballots cast — ~30% of 62,294 registered voters. First post-growth-wave primary in a non-presidential cycle.
HD-17 Primary: 16,777 Total Ballots — GOP vs Dem
GOP 9,310
Dem 7,467
55.5% GOP 44.5% Dem — in a county Trump won 58.6% in 2024
COUNTY JUDGE — GOP PRIMARY (8,778 votes)
Gregory Klaus (Incumbent)63.8%
Donald Loucks35.09%
Dem: Dock Jackson — Unopposed
Skips primary — full focus on November general
TX HD-17 — DEM PRIMARY (7,467 votes)
Dr. Mary Klenz62.22%
Frank Gomez III23.42%
Robert Salter14.36%
⚠ KEY INSIGHT: 44.5% DEM PRIMARY SHARE
In a county Trump won 58.6%, Democrats turned out 44.5% of competitive primary voters. This reflects a structurally growing Democratic base fueled by Austin in-migration. Klaus and Gerdes are still safe for 2026, but this primary gap is the clearest leading indicator of where Bastrop is heading.
REPUBLICAN MARGIN OF VICTORY — PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
R margin over D in points (e.g. 58.6 - 40.1 = 18.5)
+18.2
2000
+14.9
2004
+8.2
2008
+17
2012
+20.4
2016
+13.8
2020
+18.5
2024
📌 2008 — Closest Race in Modern History
Obama 45.3% vs McCain 53.5% — only an 8.2-point margin. The county held Republican, but by the slimmest recent margin.
📈 2020 — Biden's High-Water Mark at 42.2%
Best Democratic showing since 2004. Biden improved 4.8 points over Clinton's 37.4% in 2016 — tracking with the first major wave of Austin transplants.
🔄 2024 — Republican Rebound to 58.6%
Harris won only 40.1%, retreating 2.1 points from Biden. Likely driven by a rightward shift among Latino voters — partially offsetting liberal Austin in-migration.
⚠️ 2026 Primary Warning: 44.5% Dem Primary Share
In a county Trump won 58.6%, Democrats turned out 44.5% of primary voters. Base energy is building. The 2028–2030 window is when structural Democratic gains become a real threat.
🎯 2026 Forecast: Republican Hold
Klaus and Gerdes are both favored in November 2026. Expect margins in the +12 to +16 range — down from +18.5 in 2024. The question is not whether Rs win Bastrop in 2026, but whether they hold it through 2030.
⚠ TEXAS VOTER DATA NOTE
Texas does not have party voter registration — voters do not declare R or D. Primary ballot choice is the only official party proxy. Figures marked "Est." use statewide R/D ratios; figures marked "CONFIRMED" are from official Bastrop County results.
BASTROP COUNTY REGISTERED VOTERS & TURNOUT — OFFICIAL SOS DATA
62,294
Registered voters (Mar 2026)
+38%
Voter roll growth since 2016
65%
2024 general turnout
30%
2026 primary turnout
Registered voters vs turnout by election cycle
2016
45,137 reg → 28,424 voted
63.0%
Presidential
2018
46,416 reg → 27,662 voted
60.0%
Midterm (Gov)
2020
52,096 reg → 36,612 voted
70.3%
Presidential
2022
55,779 reg → 29,232 voted
52.4%
Midterm (Gov)
2024
61,423 reg → 39,956 voted
65.0%
Presidential
2026*
62,294 reg → 18,606 voted
29.9%
Primary Only
VOTER ROLL GROWTH
Bastrop County added 17,157 registered voters between 2016 and 2024 — a 38% increase. New voters added since 2016 roughly equal the entire county voter rolls from the early 1990s.
TURNOUT PATTERN
Presidential years drive massive turnout spikes — 70.28% in 2020 was the highest in 3 decades. Midterms drop 10–20 points. The 2026 primary's 30% is above the statewide ~22% norm.
R VS D PRIMARY BALLOT PARTICIPATION — BASTROP COUNTY
Primary ballot choice = Texas's only official party proxy. 2026 data confirmed; prior years estimated.
2016 ESTIMATED
R 66.7% D 33.3%
6,800
3,400
2018 ESTIMATED
R 61.4% D 38.6%
6,200
3,900
2020 ESTIMATED
R 76.3% D 23.7%
7,100
2,200
2022 ESTIMATED
R 64.6% D 35.4%
6,750
3,700
2024 ESTIMATED
R 70.0% D 30.0%
9,800
4,200
2026 CONFIRMED
R 55.5% D 44.5%
9,310
7,467
THE KEY TREND: DEM PRIMARY SHARE GROWING
The Dem primary share jumped from ~33% to 44.5% in a single cycle. That is an 11-point swing. Whether this is a lasting structural shift or a 2026 enthusiasm spike will be visible in 2028 primary numbers. It is the single most important data point for understanding Bastrop County's trajectory.
GENERAL ELECTION R VS D VOTE TOTALS — BASTROP COUNTY
2016 President
57.8%
16,314 R
R +20.4
28,250 total
37.4%
10,555 D
2018 Governor
61.8%
17,100 R
R +24.9
27,662 total
36.9%
10,200 D
2020 President
56%
19,900 R
R +13.8
36,612 total
42.2%
15,000 D
2022 Governor
61.3%
17,900 R
R +24.4
29,232 total
36.9%
10,800 D
2024 President
58.6%
23,276 R
R +18.5
39,956 total
40.1%
15,941 D
KEY FINDING: DEMOCRATS ADDED MORE RAW VOTES 2016→2024
Between 2016 and 2024, Republicans added ~6,962 net votes. Democrats added ~5,386 net votes. Both grew, but Democrats grew at a faster rate (+51% vs +43%). Republicans hold the margin but the gap is compressing.
EARLY VOTING vs ELECTION DAY — BASTROP COUNTY
Official SOS data. Early voting = in-person early + mail ballots.
2016
Early: 21,188 (74.5%) Day-of: 7,236 (25.5%)
Early
Day
2018
Early: 18,634 (67.4%) Day-of: 9,028 (32.6%)
Early
Day
2020
Early: 31,298 (85.5%) Day-of: 5,314 (14.5%)
Early
Day
2022
Early: 19,944 (68.2%) Day-of: 9,288 (31.8%)
Early
Day
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CAMPAIGNS
📈
2020 Covid spike reshaped expectations
85.5% of Bastrop voters cast ballots before Election Day — a historic high that set new voter habits.
🔵
Early vote leans Democratic
Nationally and in Texas, early voters skew more Democratic. Republican campaigns should prioritize Election Day GOTV.
⚡
Election Day = GOP's structural advantage
Bastrop's Election Day voter pool is historically Republican-dominant. Protecting this turnout is critical.
📅
2026 early vote window: Oct 20–Oct 30
Republican campaigns should plan two waves of voter contact during early voting and a final Election Day push.
Join the Fight
Stand with Bastrop County Conservatives to protect family, faith, and freedom.