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BASTROP COUNTY CONSERVATIVES

WAR ROOM

Electoral Intelligence Dashboard — Bastrop County, Texas

0
Population 2026
+64.7% since 2010
0
Registered Voters
March 2026 Rolls
R +18.5
Conservative Margin
2024 Presidential
—
Days to Election
November 3, 2026
⏱

ELECTION COUNTDOWN

—
DAYS
:
—
HOURS
:
—
MINUTES
:
—
SECONDS
May 2, 2026
Uniform Election (School Board / City)
May 26, 2026
Republican Primary Runoff
Oct 19, 2026
Early Voting Begins
Oct 30, 2026
Early Voting Ends
Nov 3, 2026
General Election Day
📊

CONSERVATIVE STRENGTH — PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS

Bastrop County presidential results 2000–2024. Republican margin has held between R+8 and R+20 for a quarter century.

2000
56.3%
38.1%
R +18.2
2004
56.7%
41.8%
R +14.9
2008
53.5%
45.3%
R +8.2
2012
57.3%
40.3%
R +17.0
2016
57.8%
37.4%
R +20.4
2020
56%
42.2%
R +13.8
2024
58.6%
40.1%
R +18.5
📈

POPULATION GROWTH ENGINE

Bastrop County surged from 74K to 122K in 16 years — a 64.7% increase driven by Austin overflow, Tesla, and SpaceX.

74.4K
2010
82.6K
+11.0%
2015
84.5K
+2.3%
2019
97.2K
+15.0%
2020
105.0K
+8.0%
2022
111.2K
+5.9%
2023
114.9K
+3.4%
2024
122.5K
+6.6%
2026
3,100+
Net arrivals per year
13th
Fastest-growing TX county
20K
City of Bastrop by 2029
🎯

MIGRATION THREAT ASSESSMENT

Where new Bastrop County residents originate. Travis County (Austin) is the single largest source at 38%.

MIGRATION ~3,342/yr
Travis County (Austin)
38%
Other TX Counties
27%
Other US States
22%
Natural Increase
9%
International
4%
🗳

VOTER TURNOUT TRACKER

Registered voters vs actual turnout. Presidential years spike to 65–70%. Midterms and primaries drop significantly.

2016 Presidential
45,137 reg
28,424 voted
63.0%
2018 Midterm
46,416 reg
27,662 voted
60.0%
2020 Presidential
52,096 reg
36,612 voted
70.3%
2022 Midterm
55,779 reg
29,232 voted
52.4%
2024 Presidential
61,423 reg
39,956 voted
65.0%
2026 Primary
62,294 reg
18,606 voted
29.9%
📍

PRECINCT POWER MAP — TOP 10

Active voter registration by precinct. Bastrop City and Tahitian Village drive the largest concentration of active voters.

Pct 1001 — Bastrop City
4,320
Pct 1002 — Tahitian Village
3,840
Pct 3012 — Cedar Creek
3,650
Pct 2008 — Smithville
3,410
Pct 4015 — Elgin South
3,200
Pct 4016 — Elgin North
2,980
Pct 2011 — Rosanky
2,450
Pct 3014 — Red Rock
2,100
Pct 1004 — Camp Swift
1,850
Pct 2009 — Paige
1,540
⚠

RISK ASSESSMENT — GROWTH IMPACT

Threats to the conservative majority driven by population growth and demographic shifts.

HIGH RISK
Austin Overflow — Political Spillover
~38% of in-migrants from Travis County. Travis County votes 70%+ Democrat. These are Austin residents priced out, keeping Austin politics.
MEDIUM RISK
Tech Worker Influx
Tesla, SpaceX, and The Boring Company are drawing high-income tech workers. This cohort skews socially liberal but economically libertarian.
MEDIUM RISK
Declining Median Age
Median age dropped from 38.4 to 37.5 in five years. Younger populations lean more Democratic nationally. The historic 2-to-1 R lean could compress.
LOW RISK
2026 Base Still Holds
62,294 registered voters. Republican infrastructure dominates existing rolls. New arrivals have lagged registration — protects GOP through 2026.
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
2026 is still safe. Existing GOP voter rolls dominate and new arrivals haven't fully mobilized. The real exposure window is 2028–2030. The time to build infrastructure for new voter outreach — especially moderate tech workers and value-driven transplants — is now.

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