Bastrop County is no longer the quiet, rural stretch of Central Texas it was a generation ago. With an estimated population of roughly 122,500 in 2026, the county has grown more than 64% since 2010, when just 74,381 people called it home. That kind of growth changes everything: schools, roads, elections, and the character of the community itself.
If you live here, you already feel it. New subdivisions off Highway 71. Longer lines at H-E-B. Construction cranes on the horizon. But the numbers tell a story worth understanding, especially if you care about the future direction of Bastrop County.
Where the Growth Is Coming From
Census data and migration estimates paint a clear picture of who is moving into Bastrop County, and why.
The largest single source of new residents is Travis County, primarily Austin. Approximately 38% of domestic migration into Bastrop County originates from Austin and its surrounding areas. These are families and individuals priced out of the capital city, looking for more affordable housing, more land, and a different pace of life.
Another 27% of new arrivals come from other Texas counties, particularly Williamson, Hays, and Caldwell. These are neighboring communities experiencing their own growth pressures, and Bastrop County sits in the path of expansion.
Roughly 22% of newcomers are arriving from other U.S. states, with California, Washington, and New York among the most common origins. Many of these transplants are routing through Austin before settling further east into Bastrop County.
Natural population increase (births minus deaths) accounts for about 9% of growth, with approximately 442 net births annually. International migration adds another 4%, with around 242 net international arrivals per year.
The net domestic migration alone exceeds 3,100 new arrivals annually. That is not a blip. That is a sustained wave.
The Numbers Behind the Boom
Here are the key population figures every Bastrop County resident should know:
- 2010 population: 74,381
- 2020 population: ~98,000
- 2024 population: ~114,931
- 2026 estimated population: ~122,531
- Growth since 2010: +64.7%
- Median age: 37.5 years (and dropping)
- Registered voters (March 2026): 62,294
- Voter roll growth since 2016: +38%
Between 2020 and 2023 alone, Bastrop County grew 13.9%, making it the 13th fastest-growing county in Texas during that period. The city of Bastrop itself expects to reach 20,000 residents by 2029, a 42% jump from its current population of roughly 14,000.
What Is Driving the Growth
Several major forces are pulling people into Bastrop County.
Austin spillover is the dominant factor. As housing costs in Travis County continue to climb, families and young professionals are looking 30 miles down Highway 71 for homes they can actually afford. Bastrop County offers more square footage, larger lots, and lower property tax rates compared to Austin proper.
Job creation is accelerating. SpaceX and Starlink have expanded their Bastrop facility by over one million square feet, bringing more than 400 jobs and a $280 million investment. Acutronic is building the only jet engine component manufacturing facility in Texas, with at least 50 high-skill jobs. LS Electric opened its first North American production facility in 2025, employing 50 workers with plans for $240 million in additional investment.
Commercial development is following the rooftops. The Sendero mixed-use development at Highway 71 and FM 969 is a $300 million project delivering 782 residential units, a hotel, and over 250,000 square feet of retail and professional space. Adelton, one of the area’s largest master-planned communities, is building out more than 1,200 residential units along with 125,000 square feet of commercial space. A new Courtyard by Marriott, H-E-B expansion, Sprouts grocery store, and dozens of new restaurants are all in various stages of construction.
Entertainment and media are entering the picture as well. Actor Zachary Levi’s Wyldwood Studios is a 75-acre development along the Colorado River. Line204 Texas is building a purpose-built studio lot on 546 acres. A $1.4 billion data center is under construction in Cedar Creek.
This is not speculative growth. Shovels are in the ground.
What This Means for Elections
Population growth has a direct impact on the political landscape. Bastrop County’s voter rolls have surged from about 45,000 registered voters in 2016 to more than 62,000 in 2026, a 38% increase.
Turnout patterns tell an important story:
- 2016 Presidential: 63.0% turnout (28,424 voted)
- 2018 Midterm (Governor): 60.0% turnout (27,662 voted)
- 2020 Presidential: 70.3% turnout (36,612 voted)
- 2022 Midterm (Governor): 52.4% turnout (29,232 voted)
- 2024 Presidential: 65.0% turnout (39,956 voted)
- 2026 Primary: 29.9% turnout (18,606 voted)
In 2024, Donald Trump carried Bastrop County with 58.6% of the vote compared to 40.1% for Kamala Harris. That is a healthy conservative margin, but it is worth watching as thousands of new voters register each year. Where those voters come from, and what values they bring with them, will shape the elections to come.
The median age is 37.5 and trending younger. Younger voters tend to engage differently than longtime residents, and the communities they are moving from (Austin, California, New York) carry different political habits.
The Conservative Case for Paying Attention
Growth itself is neither good nor bad. The question is whether the community shapes the growth, or the growth shapes the community.
Bastrop County has always been a place where people know their neighbors, where property rights matter, where local government stays limited, and where families can raise kids in a community that reflects their values. Maintaining that character while the population nearly doubles in 15 years requires intentional engagement.
That means showing up to vote in local elections, not just presidential ones. The 2026 primary saw just 29.9% turnout. County judge races, school board seats, and bond elections are decided by whoever shows up, and new residents who moved here for affordable housing may not share the same priorities as families who have been here for decades.
It means staying informed about zoning decisions, bond proposals, and infrastructure spending. Every new subdivision requires roads, water, schools, and emergency services. How those get funded and who makes those decisions matters.
And it means welcoming new neighbors while making clear what kind of community Bastrop County is. Most people moving here chose Bastrop County for a reason. They want the same things longtime residents want: safety, affordability, good schools, and a community that works. The job of conservative leadership is to make sure those values remain at the center of how the county grows.
The Bottom Line
Bastrop County’s population has grown from 74,000 to over 122,000 in just 15 years, and the pace is not slowing down. Austin overflow, major job creators like SpaceX, and billions of dollars in commercial development are transforming the county.
The conservative majority here is real, but it is not guaranteed forever. Every election cycle brings thousands of new registered voters. The communities, candidates, and organizations that engage those voters early will determine whether Bastrop County’s growth strengthens its conservative character or dilutes it.
The numbers are clear. The question is what we do with them.
Data sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Secretary of State, Census Population Estimates Program, and RedStateTexas.com/BastropCounty election intelligence dashboard. For the full interactive dashboard with voter data, migration patterns, and electoral analysis, visit RedStateTexas.com.
Bastrop County Conservatives is a community organization dedicated to promoting conservative values and civic engagement in Bastrop County, Texas. Visit BastropCC.com to get involved.